The Extra Point How Defensive Schemes are Shaping the NFL's Passing Game in 2024

How Defensive Schemes are Shaping the NFL's Passing Game in 2024

September 25, 2024

In the mid-2010s, the NFL saw a surge in passing offense resulting in the running game taking a back seat. The 2015 and 2016 seasons featured more than 480 passing yards per game — the highest passing seasons in league history. Those same seasons saw fewer than 220 rushing yards per game — the lowest since 1999.

Passing yardage per game was relatively steady through 2020, but the start of the 2024 season is shaping up to continue a five-year decline. In Weeks 1-3 across recent seasons, passing yards per game have dropped from 496 in 2020 to 491 in 2021, 462 in 2022, 444 in 2023, and just 403 thus far in 2024.

If this trend continues, 2024 will see the fewest passing yards per game since 1993.

What explains the trend?

Several factors are at play, but one significant change is the increased use of multiple safeties in defensive schemes. The examples below show that defenses have embraced formations like Cover 2, Cover 4, and Cover 6. According to Next Gen Stats, the percentage of two-high safety looks on passing attempts has jumped from 44% in 2019 to 63% in 2024.

Beyond pre-snap categorizations, Next Gen Stats player location data offers deeper insights. The plot below visualizes where all defensive players were positioned at the snap during Weeks 1-3 of the 2024 season, compared to the same period in 2019. The color intensity shows changes in player positioning probabilities — red indicates an increased presence of defenders, and blue represents a reduced presence.

The 2024 season reveals a clear shift, particularly with more two-high safety looks. In 2019, defensive backs were more likely to play press on the outside with a single high safety (middle field closed) whereas in 2024, the pattern resembles a “red crab,” with linebackers or hybrid defensive backs positioned 4-6 yards off the line and two split safeties (middle field open) 10-15 yards deep. Of note, this does not account for post-snap rotations, but this chart reproduced for one- and two-seconds post-snap does not look materially different.

These defensive adjustments may also explain other early trends in 2024. For instance, average air yards per pass attempt have dropped to 7.7 yards — the lowest in over a decade and nearly a full yard fewer than in 2019. Deep pass attempts — throws 20+ yards downfield — have decreased from 10.2 per game in 2019 to 7.7 per game in 2024.

Defenses are evolving to counter the air attack and the impact is clear — we’re seeing fewer passing yards, shorter throws, and fewer deep passes through the first three weeks.